New hydroepidemiological models of indicator organisms and zoonotic pathogens in agricultural watersheds

Simple analytical models are derived to assess how a series of cattle animal farms affect the transport and fate of an indicator organism (Escherichia coli) and a zoonotic pathogen (Campylobacter) in a stream. Separate steady-state mass-balance models are developed and solved for the ultimate minimum and maximum concentrations for the two organisms. The E. coli model assumes that the organism is ubiquitous and abundant in the animals’ digestive tracts. In contrast, a simple dose-response model is employed to relate the Campylobacter prevalence to drinking water drawn from the stream. Because faecal indicators are commonly employed to assess the efficacy of best management practice (BMP) interventions, we also employ the models to assess how BMPs impact pathogen levels. The model provides predictions of (a) the relative removal efficacy for Campylobacter and (b) the prevalence of Campylobacter infection among farm animals after implementation of BMPs. Dimensionless numbers and simple graphs are developed to assess how prevalence is influenced by a number of factors including animal density and farm spacing. A significant outcome of this model development is that the numerous dimensional input and parameter variables are reduced to a group of just four dimensionless Campylobacter-related quantities, characterizing: animal density; in-stream attenuation; animal-to-animal transmission; and infection recovery. Calculations reveal that for some constellations of these four quantities there can be a greater-than-expected benefit in that the proportional reduction of stream Campylobacter concentrations post-BMP can substantially exceed the proportional reduction of concentrations of E. coli in that stream. In addition, a criterion for system sterility (i.e., the conditions required for the farm infection rate to decrease with downstream distance) is derived.     

变化环境下北江下游年径流量的加权马尔可夫链预测

在气候变化和人类活动的影响下,西北江的水文环境发生了重大变化,导致北江下游的来水条件发生变化。采用斯波曼检验（Spearman’s rho test）和Mann-kendall法系统地分析了北江下游的年径流量的变化趋势和变异情况,在此基础上建立了北江下游变化环境下年径流量的加权马尔可夫链预测模型。结果表明：西北江近50年来的大规模联围筑闸、大规模无序采掘河床泥沙等剧烈的人类活动,导致北江下游三水水文站年径流量在1990年左右发生了变异;所建立的加权马尔可夫链预测结果表明,从变异后的序列中统计出来的状态＂转移概率＂矩阵,能准确地反映出环境变化后年径流量之间的关系,所建立的加权马尔可夫链法预测变化环境下的年径流量是可行的,预测效果也比较好;按文章确定的分级标准,依现有的资料信息推断,环境发生变化后,在未来长期过程中,北江下游出现平水年的机会最大,但年际间的丰枯波动概率也不小。这一结果值得水资源管理部门注意。     

黄河口潮间带表层沉积物重金属和营养元素的分布特征

于2010年5月采集了5个断面的黄河口潮间带高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物样品,对沉积物的理化性质、重金属和营养元素的空间分布特征进行了研究,并采用单因子污染指数法和综合潜在生态风险指数法,参考加拿大安大略省环境和能源部关于沉积物质量指南,对黄河口潮间带沉积物质量进行了评价。结果表明,除Cu和Pb外,其它重金属和营养元素质量分数均表现为河口北侧高于南侧;除Hg外,高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物重金属和营养元素质量分数无显著差异,没有表现出成熟潮滩明显的垂岸分带特征。Pb质量分数高于渤海表层沉积物的高值,是该区域的首要污染因子;Hg在河口北侧近河口的两个站位低潮滩质量分数达到海洋沉积物质量一类标准的1.7和1.8倍,存在一定的潜在生态风险;TN和TOC质量分数范围在安全级别,TP质量分数在20%的站位超过最低安全级别,存在一定的安全风险。与国内其它潮滩相比,黄河口潮间带重金属Zn、Cd、Hg和As的质量分数处于较低水平,Cu和Pb质量分数处于中等水平,TOC和TP质量分数与长江口潮间带相当,TN质量分数较低。研究结果将为黄河三角洲地区生态保护、环境管理和污染治理提供基础数据。     

长期不同施肥方式对江南稻田系统生产力与抗逆性的影响

依据29 a的田间施肥小区试验和4 a的养分耗竭盆栽试验,比较分析了不同施肥方式对江南丘陵稻田生产力及抗逆性的综合影响。结果表明,有机无机肥配施(NPK+OM处理)方式下,双季稻各季和周年生产力最高,其周年平均生物量和籽粒产量比化肥氮磷钾配施(NPK处理)高24.5%和20.2%。与单施氮肥相比,化肥氮磷钾配施显著提高了双季稻的氮素利用效率,而适量增施有机氮能够进一步提高氮素利用效率。化肥单施方式(N和NPK处理)下水稻周年籽粒产量呈递减趋势,下降幅度分别为43.7和1.8 kg.hm-2.a-1,而有机无机肥配施方式下水稻周年籽粒产量呈递增趋势,上升幅度为6.9 kg.hm-2.a-1。平衡施肥方式(NPK和NPK+OM处理)下,水稻各季及周年籽粒产量的年际变异较小,可持续性产量指数和系统生产力稳定性较高。养分耗竭试验4 a后,各处理水稻各季及周年生物量和籽粒产量高低基本表现为NPK+OM>NPK>N,试验期内周年籽粒平均产量以有机无机肥配施处理最高,说明有机无机肥配施的稻田土壤耐瘠能力高于其他施肥处理。可见,有机无机肥配施不仅能使稻田系统持续保持较高的生产力,而且能够提升系统的抗逆性,有利于江南丘陵稻田系...     

Assessment of transboundary environmental effects in the Pearl River Delta Region: Is there a role for strategic environmental assessment?

China's EIA Law does not require transboundary proposals to be assessed, despite recognition of this globally, for example in the Espoo Convention and Kiev Protocol, and in the European EIA and SEA Directives. In a transboundary context assessment within a state is unusual, as regulating these effects is primarily about the relationship between states. However where a state has more than one legal system such as in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region of southern China, transboundary effects should also be addressed. Yet despite the geographical connections between Guangdong Province in mainland China (where the EIA Law applies) and the Hong Kong and Macau Special Administrative Regions (which have their own provisions, neither of which requires transboundary assessments), EIA and SEA are carried out separately. Coordinated or joint approaches to transboundary assessment are generally absent, with the legal autonomy of Hong Kong and Macau a major constraint. As a result institutional responses at the policy level have developed. The article considers global experiences with regulating transboundary EIA and SEA, and analyses potential application to land use, transport and air and water planning in the PRD Region. If applied, benefits may include prevention or mitigation of cumulative effects, broader public participation, and improvements to environmental governance. The PRD Region experience may encourage China to conduct and coordinate EIA and SEA processes with neighbouring states, which has been non-existent or extremely limited to date.     

黄河中上游能源化工区大气污染跨界环境影响分析

对黄河中上游能源化工区近地面和边界层顶气象流场及该区域大气污染长距离输送产生的跨界环境影响趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明,该区域近地面和边界层顶的流场总体上为西北向东南流动,大气污染物长距离输送可能影响的区域主要为华中地区;区域冷空气的活动对其大气污染物的清除起重要作用;通过CALPUFF模型的模拟结果表明,该区域SO2的影响程度和范围明显大于NO2,在区域内部存在污染物浓度较高的区域,但未对区外造成显著跨界环境影响。     

基于非恒定流的污染物迁移扩散随机模拟

针对目前大部分河流都受到不同程度污染的现状,研究了基于非恒定流的污染物迁移扩散随机模拟方法。通过一维非恒定流数值计算和流场模拟,得到了水库开闸放水后下游各个断面的水位、流量、流速等数据,并以此为基础,利用蒙特卡洛法对水库开闸放水前后下游典型断面的COD和NH3-N等进行污染物迁移扩散随机模拟,并将模型应用于文峪河下游。结果表明,文峪河水库开闸放水后,COD和NH3-N的污染带长度和宽度均有不同程度的减小,污染带向排污一侧岸边集中。研究成果可为解决河流污染现状与水库调度提供参考。     

跨界流域环境管理与预警——欧洲经验与启示

工业革命以后,欧洲流域的污染事故进入高发期,欧洲各国以流域为单位,共同商讨对策,联合开展治理工作,使流域水环境得到了很大的改善.目前,欧洲对流域的管理已经形成了一套较为科学、成熟的模式.针对中国水环境污染事故频发的状况,总结了莱茵河流域管理模式和多瑙河流域预警系统的发展经验,对构建中国流域范围内环境预警系统提出了相关思...     

环珠江口近地面夜间臭氧上升现象：基于垂直观测的两个个例研究

利用广州塔的O₃观测资料、风廓线雷达和转动拉曼温廓线激光雷达探测的垂直环境气象等观测资料,结合ERA5的近地面风场,对2017年5月6—7日(Case I)和2019年10月1—2日(CaseⅡ)两个典型个例从垂直混合与水平输送的角度进行特征与成因分析.O₃的垂直观测结果表明,夜间残留层可储存日间混合层内的高浓度O₃气团.从垂直混合与水平输送的分析结果表明,残留层O₃的垂直混合及高浓度O₃气团的水平输送是夜间地表O₃的重要来源：夜间存在垂直风切变或边界层抬升,均可加强O₃的垂直混合;珠三角地区背景风表现为在早上偏北风和晚上转换为偏南风,广州与佛山地表O₃浓度上升最显著.此外,夜间O₃浓度上升事件可造成夜间及凌晨O₃ 8 h滑动平均值持续高值,对空气质量和大气氧化性造成一定影响.     

大型通江湖泊有色可溶性有机物对不同水文情景的响应

鄱阳湖和洞庭湖作为我国面积最大的两个通江湖泊,其湖体水质变化对长江干流水质以及湖区周围居民用水安全至关重要.通过三维荧光-平行因子分析得到4个荧光组分,研究两个湖泊的有色可溶性有机物(CDOM)光谱组成在丰、平和枯这3种水文情景下的变化规律,试图揭示鄱阳湖和洞庭湖CDOM来源及组成对不同丰枯情景的响应机制.结果表明:不同水文情景对鄱阳湖CDOM水质参数影响更为显著,CDOM吸收系数a(254)和溶解性有机碳(DOC)浓度表现为丰水期平水期枯水期(t-test,P0.01),CDOM光谱吸收斜率S_(275-295)表现为枯水期平水期丰水期(t-test,P0.01),洞庭湖a(254)在不同水文情景下差异不显著,比紫外吸收系数SUVA_(254)最大值出现在平水期.平行因子分析法解析三维荧光光谱得到4个荧光组分,枯水期两湖CDOM类蛋白组分贡献率较大,平水期类蛋白组分及类腐殖酸组分贡献率大致相当,丰水期两个湖泊类腐殖酸贡献率占主要部分.在空间分布上,枯水期鄱阳湖4个组分的荧光强度在上游南部湖区偏小,北部偏大,丰水期反之,东洞庭湖4个组分的荧光强度在空间差异上表现为枯水期大于丰水期.鄱阳湖DOC浓度对水位的响应更明显(r~2=0.99,P0.01),东洞庭湖类色氨酸组分C2与水位呈显著性负相关关系(r~2=0.99,P0.05).鉴于此,应根据鄱阳湖、洞庭湖CDOM在不同水文情景下的响应特征,有针对性地对湖区水质进行管理.